Emerging Stock Market Integration among Selected SAARC and Developed Countries: An Empirical Analysis of Short-Term and Long-Term Linkages

Abstract

This paper has tried to explain the presence of integration among the stock markets of selected SAARC countries within themselves as well as with selected three Developed countries of the world. The data set consists of daily closing values of benchmark stock indices of selected SAARC and developed countries for more than 27 years period starting from November 5th, 1991 till December 31st, 2018. The data is analysed using Unit Root tests, Correlation Analysis, Vector Autoregression, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Analysis, Johansen's Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model. The results indicate the strong influencing nature of USA economy which is found to significantly affect the stock market behaviour of selected
SAARC countries both in the short term as well as long term specially after the Asian and Global Financial Crisis. Not much integration has been found among the stock markets of SAARC countries. The extent of linkages among the stock markets has been found to intensify with the passage of time because of opening up of economies, capital market reforms and advancements in Technology. This study is unique because of its emphases on selected SAARC countries, for which there is dearth of literature. Moreover, the time period of study is substantial. Sub-period analysis has also been carried on to check for the impact of Asian and Global Financial Crisis. Therefore, its results can be of great help in formulating portfolio diversification strategies by potential investors. The findings also have noteworthy value for government, regulators, policy makers, academicians and researchers.